#90 - Second month in a row property price increase
What I’m Watching
Emma Chamberlain on the Colin and Samir show. To be honest, before discovering the Colin and Samir show I had never heard of Emma Chamberlain, but since then it’s fascinating to see where she has come since starting her YouTube channel. It was a thoroughly entertaining interview and I watched the whole thing. It was interesting to hear that she relies a lot on her intuition and things having to feel right when choosing projects, which is something I’m trying to follow. Although to be fair, it’s a lot easier if you have millions in the bank like Emma does to chill and choose the most fun projects, but on the whole, I think it still stands.
Resource of the week
I sometimes browse the r/HousingUK subreddit. There are always interesting questions, cases and situations that I haven’t come across.
Quote
“Don’t let us forget that the causes of human actions are usually immeasurably more complex and varied than our subsequent explanations of them.”
Fyodor Dostoevsky
News and Trends
- UK House prices rose for the second month in a row, with a 0.5% increase in November.
- Letting agent was sentenced after diverting £128,000 from the firm’s account to fund her lifestyle with her lover.
- Landlord borrowing costs set to soar 80% by 2025.
- Spotify carries out layoffs and cancels two award-winning podcasts.
Thoughts
From the Halifax report (first link in the 'News and Trends' section), it increasingly looks like the property market is stabilising. The market has proved a lot more resilient than what most people expected this year. Currently, it’s at -1%, I mentioned in previous newsletters that experts have predicted another -1% drop in prices next year. However, looking at the metrics it looks like the market may perform better.
The current turnaround is mostly driven by mortgage rates coming down as well as incomes going up. In the long run, I think that this slight correction is healthy for the property market in general, although we’re not completely out of the woods, there is still currently a shortage of properties. If rates continue to ease down which is likely and incomes rise it’ll be a net improvement in affordability which should have a positive effect on bringing prices up and in turn supply up.
Of course, there are a lot of landlords coming off historic low fixed rates and onto the current rates which will still be much higher.
Going forward I do expect more mortgage products to come to the market, in all segments which includes the BTL space, but especially in the first-time buyer market. It is this segment which statistically has the biggest effect on property prices. It is still early days, but 2024 is shaping up to be an interesting year in property!
I’ll keep it brief this week, as I’ve been spending a lot of time working on Property Academy, which I’m aiming to open for enrollment by the end of the year. Whether you end up signing up or not I still have a lot of free stuff I’ve got lined up so stay tuned!
Hans