#64 - Property to fall 10%?

What I’m Watching

The Bon Appetit YouTube channel has released a 3 part series doing a tour of Hong Kong street food. This feels close to home, as my parents are both in the industry, it brought back a lot of memories from my dad who was working in that environment since he was 12. The video captures the culture very well.

Resource of the week

Goodreads is a great resource if you’re browsing for some inspiration for your next book to read. You can look at curated lists, or it’ll make recommendations based on your ratings.

Quote

“There will come a time when you believe everything is finished. That will be the beginning.”

Louis L'Amour

News and trends

• Moody’s has predicted that property prices will fall by up to 10% in the next 2 years citing further increases in lending rates as well as BTL landlords exiting the market.
• It really seems like social media is maturing more and more into full-blown businesses. I’m personally seeing TikTok very aggressively push TikTok shop and it now seems YouTube is getting in on the act, offering creators a resource to essentially turn their channels into a storefront.
  

Other stuff

My brand new free Cursive Handwriting for Beginner’s Skillshare class is out.

My Notion property screener with a viewing checklist for those interested.

Thoughts

I have to say, I’m surprised that the inflation rates are still so high given how aggressively the Bank of England has raised rates this year and at the back end of last year. So was the market I guess, as I mentioned in the newsletter last week a lot of mortgage products were pulled to be repriced higher. I had 2 mortgages with fixed-term expiring and managed to rush the application through.

Earlier in the year I predicted that around this time we’ll be seeing probably only one more rate rise, now I’m not so sure. Will be interesting to see how things pan out.

Personally, I think it's very unlikely we'll see a 10% fall as per Moody's prediction. While landlords are exiting, they don't make up a big enough proportion and I think that slack will be taken up by a lot of first-time buyers and home movers as banks open up stress tests to this group. I see the property market going sideways at least for the rest of this year.

What are your investment plans? Hold or still investing? Hit reply and let me know.

Hans